近年来，加拿大就业市场上出现了一个出人意料的现象：越来越多的加拿大人正涌向“体制内”工作，公务员岗位成为新的“香饽饽”。从2019年到2023年，加拿大公共部门的就业增长了13%，是私营部门3.6%增长率的近四倍，创下了有史以来的最大差距。疫情后的加拿大，似乎正逐渐步入一种“官本位”主导的经济模式，不禁让人联想到国内的“考公热”。
In recent years, Canada's job market has seen an unexpected trend: more and more Canadians are flocking to the public sector, making civil service positions the new "golden ticket." From 2019 to 2023, public sector employment in Canada grew by 13%, nearly four times the 3.6% growth in the private sector, marking the largest gap on record. Post-pandemic Canada seems to be moving towards a government-centered economic model, reminiscent of China’s civil service craze.
01
公务员大军迅速膨胀，近50万新岗位涌入“体制内”
根据菲沙研究所的最新数据，2019至2023年，加拿大公共部门新增了约49万个岗位，使体制内员工总数从370万增至420万，占到同期就业增长的46.7%。截至2024年9月，加拿大的公共部门员工已达到440万人，占总劳动力的21%，意味着每五个劳动者中就有一个是在政府、国有企业、医疗机构或高校工作。
According to the latest data from the Fraser Institute, Canada’s public sector added about 490,000 jobs from 2019 to 2023, increasing the total number of public sector employees from 3.7 million to 4.2 million, accounting for 46.7% of job growth during this period. By September 2024, public sector employees in Canada had reached 4.4 million, or 21% of the total workforce—meaning one in five workers is employed in government, state-owned enterprises, healthcare, or educational institutions.
公共医疗部门的职员
尤其在爱德华王子岛（增长25.5%）和BC省（22%），公共部门就业激增，而这些地区经济本就偏向依赖政府支持。公共部门在经济衰退中往往起到“安全垫”的作用，通过提供就业稳定社会。然而，疫情后的这次复苏显得尤为突出，与过往的经济危机不同，这次的恢复模式几乎是完全由公共部门引领。
The increase is especially significant in regions like Prince Edward Island (up 25.5%) and British Columbia (22%), areas that are already economically reliant on government support. The public sector usually acts as a "safety net" during economic downturns by stabilizing employment, but this post-pandemic recovery is notably different, as it is almost entirely driven by public sector growth.
加拿大不同经济放缓时期的就业变化图表。黄色代表公共部门，蓝色代表私营部门。自1980年以来，加拿大经历了六次主要的经济放缓，其中在2000年和2014年出现了“显著的经济放缓，表现为增长疲软”。其余四次则是经济衰退——当时GDP连续两个季度出现负增长，最近一次是2020年的新冠疫情期间。在这些经济放缓的四年结束时，公共部门就业的增长幅度在3.1%（1984年）到8.6%（2004年）之间。而私营部门就业的增长幅度在-3%（1993年）到7.7%（2004年）之间，表明公共部门就业通常在经济复苏中起主导作用。然而，新冠疫情后的复苏与以往不同，2019至2023年期间公共与私营部门就业增长的差距达近10个百分点。
而与此同时，私营部门的就业增幅明显低迷。包括自雇人士在内，私营部门仅增加了55.98万人，占总就业增长的53.3%，其中自雇人数甚至下降了6.2%。这些数据凸显了一个明显的趋势：越来越多的加拿大人更青睐“稳定的铁饭碗”，对传统创业和自雇的兴趣似乎在下滑。
Meanwhile, employment growth in the private sector has been notably weak. Including self-employed individuals, the private sector added only 559,800 jobs, accounting for 53.3% of total employment growth, with self-employment even declining by 6.2%. This data highlights a clear trend: more and more Canadians seem to favor the "stable job for life" over traditional entrepreneurship and self-employment.
03
公务员增长的财政代价：福利还是负担？
公共部门的扩张随之带来的是庞大的财政支出。有人质疑，这样的增长是否可持续？菲沙研究所警告，公共部门员工的薪水和福利最终是由私营部门纳税人承担的，而当公务员人数增多，政府开支大幅增加，财政压力和负债也将随之上升。BC省的案例最具代表性。自2021年以来，BC省因公共部门急速扩张、政府债务激增，遭遇了三次信用评级下调。
The expansion of the public sector comes with significant fiscal costs. Some question whether this growth is sustainable. The Fraser Institute warns that public sector salaries and benefits are ultimately funded by private-sector taxpayers, and as the number of civil servants increases, government spending surges, resulting in heightened fiscal pressure and debt. British Columbia provides a telling example: since 2021, the province has faced three credit downgrades due to the rapid expansion of public employment and mounting government debt.
BC信用评级已被下调至 'AA-'
为了应对这种负担，加拿大联邦政府今年4月宣布了一项削减计划。联邦财政委员会主席Anita Anand表示，将在未来五年内削减5000个联邦职位，总计节省42亿加元。她指出，疫情期间政府需要扩招以支持各种紧急政策，但现在需要进行结构性调整，以防财政失控。然而，削减计划也引发了一部分公务员的不满，认为在高通胀环境下裁员不利于社会稳定。
To address this burden, Canada’s federal government announced a cutback plan in April this year. Federal Treasury Board President Anita Anand stated that 5,000 federal positions would be eliminated over the next five years, saving a total of 4.2 billion Canadian dollars. She noted that while the pandemic required increased hiring to support emergency policies, structural adjustments are now necessary to prevent fiscal overspending. However, this plan has also sparked discontent among some civil servants, who argue that layoffs in a high-inflation environment are detrimental to social stability.
04
公务员扩招，民间担忧与乐观派的不同声音
对公共部门扩张持批评态度的人认为，这会造成经济的“官僚化”，拖累私营部门的发展速度。公共部门虽能提供稳定就业，但对创新和生产力的贡献较为有限。而且，公共部门的高薪和优厚福利还可能“挤出”私营部门的人才，导致本该创新的领域失去发展活力。
Critics of public sector expansion believe that it could lead to "bureaucratization" of the economy, slowing down private sector growth. While the public sector can provide stable employment, it makes limited contributions to innovation and productivity. Additionally, the high salaries and generous benefits in the public sector could draw talent away from the private sector, stifling growth in fields that typically drive innovation.
公共部门扩张对私营经济发展究竟有利有害？这引起了大家的热议
不过，经济学家Jim Stanford则持相反意见。他指出，公共部门员工收入主要会流向私营经济，从零售、建筑到交通运输等多个领域，从而推动消费和投资。优质的公共服务能够改善教育、医疗等社会基础，为私营企业提供更加健康和技能充足的劳动力，这反而可能促进整体经济的长远发展。
However, economist Jim Stanford has a different perspective. He argues that public sector employee incomes flow into the private economy, boosting consumption and investment across sectors from retail and construction to transportation. Quality public services can improve the foundations of society, such as education and healthcare, providing private companies with a healthier and better-skilled workforce, potentially supporting the long-term growth of the economy.
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总结：加拿大会成为下一个“官本位”社会吗？
当越来越多的加拿大人选择进入公共部门工作，不禁让人联想到国内的“考公热”。在这种趋势下，加拿大的“官本位”是否会进一步加深？未来，加拿大会不会成为一个更加依赖政府支持的国家，逐渐向“体制内”靠拢？对许多渴望稳定的人来说，公务员可能比自主创业或在私营部门打拼更具吸引力。然而，长远来看，这种模式会带来经济活力的下降，还是公共福利的提升，仍然是一个值得深思的问题。
The increasing number of Canadians choosing public sector jobs draws parallels with China’s "civil service craze." Will Canada’s shift towards a more government-centered employment structure deepen? Will the nation become more dependent on government support and move toward a more “institutionalized” model? For many seeking stability, civil service positions may be more appealing than entrepreneurship or the private sector. However, in the long run, whether this model will lead to decreased economic dynamism or improved public welfare remains a question worth pondering.
