12月16日,加拿大政坛突然迎来腥风血雨。一大早,财政部长Chrystia Freeland的震撼辞职点燃舆论,而新民主党(NDP)领袖Jagmeet Singh随后更直接开炮,公开要求总理特鲁多辞职,宣称“他必须下台”。从内阁内斗到在野党逼宫,自由党少数派政府已如风中残烛,下一步是提前大选,还是彻底崩盘?

On December 16, Canada’s political scene was thrown into turmoil. Early in the morning, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s shocking resignation ignited public debate, followed by New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh’s direct call for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, declaring, “He must go.” From cabinet infighting to opposition challenges, the Liberal minority government seems to be hanging by a thread. Will the next step be an early election or a complete collapse?


01
财政部长辞职:自由党裂痕全面公开化


清晨,Chrystia Freeland在社交媒体上发布辞职声明,不仅宣布辞去财政部长一职,还直接向总理特鲁多发难,称后者要求她调任其他内阁职位已是“羞辱性的政治安排”。辞职声明一出,迅速成为头条。

In the early morning, Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation on social media, stepping down as Finance Minister while also taking direct aim at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. She called his request to reassign her to another cabinet role a “humiliating political arrangement.” Her statement quickly became headline news.

Freeland(方慧兰)的辞职信 —— 中文翻译版

而更让人关注的是辞职时机的敏感性:Freeland原计划当天发布的秋季财政报告,被外界普遍预计将披露政府赤字已突破400亿加元目标。显然,这位“经济铁娘子”不愿替特鲁多背锅,索性与他彻底划清界限。

The timing of her resignation drew even more attention: Freeland was originally scheduled to release the fall fiscal report that day, which was widely expected to reveal that the government’s deficit had exceeded the CAD 40 billion target. Clearly, the “Iron Lady of Economics” refused to take the blame for Trudeau and opted to draw a clear line between herself and him.

有内部消息称,Freeland辞职只是自由党内部分裂的冰山一角。因为除了Freeland,包括住房部长Sean Fraser在内的多名内阁要员已宣布不再参选,意味着自由党内部信心严重不足。

Insiders suggest Freeland’s resignation is just the tip of the iceberg in the Liberal Party’s internal divisions. Because key cabinet members, including Housing Minister Sean Fraser, have announced they will not seek re-election, signaling a severe lack of confidence within the party.

今天与方慧兰一同宣布辞职的还有联邦住房部长Sean Fraser


02
Singh逼宫:总理“必须下台”


就在Freeland辞职的数小时后,NDP领袖Jagmeet Singh向媒体发表重磅言论:“特鲁多只顾内斗,而无暇顾及加拿大人的困境。他必须辞职。”

Hours after Freeland’s resignation, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh delivered a bombshell statement to the media: “Trudeau is too focused on infighting and has no time to address Canadians’ struggles. He must resign.”


Singh的言辞毫不留情,直接点名政府未能解决高昂的生活成本、飙升的房价,以及特朗普当选美国总统后可能对加拿大施加25%的关税威胁。他还警告道:“我们将考虑所有选项,包括支持不信任动议。”

Singh’s words were scathing, directly blaming the government for failing to tackle the soaring cost of living, skyrocketing housing prices, and the looming threat of a 25% tariff from a Trump-led U.S. presidency. He warned, “We will consider all options, including supporting a no-confidence motion.”

更有趣的是,新民主党作为自由党的关键盟友,此前一直通过“信任与供给协议”支持自由党少数政府,而Singh此时的“倒戈”无疑让特鲁多失去了最后的执政保护伞。

Interestingly, the NDP has been a key ally of the Liberals, supporting their minority government through a “confidence and supply agreement.” Singh’s “betrayal” at this moment strips Trudeau of his last protective shield for governance.


03
保守党火上浇油:特鲁多的混乱已经无法收拾


与此同时,保守党领袖Pierre Poilievre也没有放过这次机会。他在国会前对记者表示:“自由党政府的混乱和分裂让加拿大陷入危险。他们完全无力应对特朗普即将上台可能对加拿大经济造成的冲击。”

Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seized the moment. Speaking to reporters outside Parliament, he declared, “The chaos and division within the Liberal government are putting Canada at risk. They are completely incapable of dealing with the economic shocks that Trump’s potential presidency could bring.”

2024 年 12 月 16 日,渥太华,保守党领袖皮埃尔-波利瓦尔(Pierre Poilievre)在国会山的新闻发布会上讲话

Poilievre将矛头指向特鲁多,称他正在被“一个人拯救”——意指Singh仍未明确是否支持不信任动议。他进一步批评道:“特朗普可以从一公里外嗅到软弱,而特鲁多正是这种软弱的象征。”

Poilievre directed his criticism squarely at Trudeau, claiming he is being “saved by a single person”—a reference to Singh’s yet-unclear stance on supporting a no-confidence motion. He further added, “Trump can smell weakness from a kilometer away, and Trudeau is the embodiment of that weakness.”


04
民调低迷:自由党支持率跌至历史谷底


最新的民调显示,自由党的支持率已降至21%,而保守党则以超过40%的支持率遥遥领先。自由党的支持率自9月以来暴跌了5个百分点,而NDP则趁势攀升了5个百分点。

The latest poll shows that Liberal support has dropped to 21%, while the Conservatives lead with over 40%. Liberal support has plummeted by 5 percentage points since September, while the NDP has gained 5 points.


“越来越多的进步派选民开始考虑NDP作为替代选项,”Ipsos的分析师Darrel Bricker指出。民调数据清晰表明,特鲁多的个人声誉及自由党的执政能力正在经历前所未有的危机。

“More and more progressive voters are beginning to see the NDP as a viable alternative,” said Ipsos analyst Darrel Bricker. The polling data makes it clear that Trudeau’s personal reputation and the Liberal Party’s governance are facing an unprecedented crisis.


05
提前大选?特鲁多能否保住权力?


根据加拿大选举法,下一次联邦大选最迟需在2025年10月举行,但当前的局势让提前大选成为一种可能。如果自由党在议会中失去信任投票,将被迫走向选举。而对特鲁多而言,这也可能是一个“体面退场”的方式。

Under Canada’s election laws, the next federal election is due by October 2025, but the current turmoil makes an early election a real possibility. If the Liberals lose a confidence vote in Parliament, they would be forced to go to the polls. For Trudeau, this could also serve as a “graceful exit.”


更令人关注的是,Freeland辞职后传出可能竞选自由党党魁的消息,进一步削弱了特鲁多在党内的权威。对于特鲁多来说,现在的选择似乎只有两种:要么奋力一搏清洗党内异己;要么主动辞职,避免彻底被逼宫。

Adding to the intrigue, rumors have surfaced that Freeland may run for the Liberal leadership, further undermining Trudeau’s authority within the party. For Trudeau, the choices seem to boil down to two: fight to purge dissent within the party or resign voluntarily to avoid being forced out.

从内阁辞职潮到盟友反水,自由党正面临成立以来最严峻的危机。而无论最终结果如何,这场政治风暴将对加拿大的未来产生深远影响。对于普通加拿大人而言,唯一的共识或许是:这个冬天,不仅仅是天气冷,政坛更冷。

From cabinet resignations to allies turning against them, the Liberal Party is facing the most severe crisis in its history. Regardless of the outcome, this political storm will have a profound impact on Canada’s future. For ordinary Canadians, the only consensus might be this: this winter, it’s not just the weather that’s cold; the political climate is even colder.

你如何看待特鲁多的未来?提前大选是否不可避免?欢迎留言讨论!

What do you think about Trudeau’s future? Is an early election inevitable? Share your thoughts in the comments!


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