对加墨关税推迟30天！不过特朗普究竟想通过“关税战”获得什么？或是新版“广场协议”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on social media a few hours ago that following his call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Canada would spend $1.3 billion on beefing up border security and increasing law enforcement to curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. is holding off on implementing a new round of tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. after 30 days, it's up for discussion.

加拿大总理特鲁多几个小时前在社交媒体上表示，他与美国总统特朗普通话后，加拿大将投入13亿美元强化边境安全，增加执法力量，以遏制芬太尼流入美国。同时，美国暂缓对加拿大和墨西哥实施新一轮关税，时间为30天。30天后，再商量。

特鲁多社媒发文：

I just had a good call with President Trump. Canada is implementing our $1.3 billion border plan — reinforcing the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American partners, and increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border.

我刚刚与特朗普总统通了电话。加拿大正在实施我们耗资13亿美元的边境计划--用新的直升机、技术和人员加强边境，加强与我们美国伙伴的协调，并增加资源以阻止芬太尼的流动。近 10,000 名前线人员正在并将继续保护边境。

In addition, Canada is making new commitments to appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we will list cartels as terrorists, ensure 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada- U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. I have also signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl and we will be backing it with $200 million.

此外，加拿大正在作出新的承诺，任命一名芬太尼沙皇，我们将把卡特尔列为恐怖分子，确保全天候监视边境，启动加美联合打击部队，以打击有组织犯罪、芬太尼和洗钱活动。我还签署了一项关于有组织犯罪和芬太尼的新情报指令，我们将为此提供2亿美元的支持。

Proposed tariffs will be paused for at least 30 days while we work together.

在我们共同努力期间，拟议关税将暂停至少 30 天。

特朗普征收关税的潜在真正原因

Many people will explain Trump's tariff policy in terms of traditional economic theories: protecting domestic industries, reducing trade deficits, boosting local employment, and so on. But if one stops at these levels, one cannot understand the true intent of this policy.

很多人会用传统经济理论解释特朗普的关税政策：保护国内产业、减少贸易逆差、提升本土就业率等。但如果仅仅停留在这些层面，就无法理解这一政策的真正意图。

For Canadian policymakers trying to understand Trump's motivations for imposing tariffs, they should consult an unassuming but important policy document released in the wake of the November '24 presidential election. The document, titled “A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System,” lays out an ambitious plan and uses tariffs as a key policy tool. Its author, Stephen Milan, has been nominated to chair Trump's Council of Economic Advisers.

对于那些试图理解特朗普征收关税动机的加拿大政策制定者来说，他们应该查阅一份在24年11月总统大选后发布的不起眼但重要的政策文件。这份题为《重构全球贸易体系用户指南》的文件，阐述了一个雄心勃勃的计划，并将关税作为重要的政策工具。其作者斯蒂芬·米兰已被提名为特朗普经济顾问委员会首席。

Milan argues that the Bretton Woods system, which created institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, is being used to undermine U.S. interests. He proposes tariffs as a powerful tool to restore U.S. economic dominance. As he puts it, “Tariffs and monetary policy are designed to improve the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, increase industrial capacity, and redistribute aggregate demand and employment from the rest of the world to U.S. soil.”

米兰认为，建立了国际货币基金组织和世界银行等机构的布雷顿森林体系正被利用来削弱美国利益。他提出关税是恢复美国经济主导地位的有力工具。正如他所说："关税和货币政策旨在提高美国制造业的竞争力，增加工业产能，并将总需求和就业从世界其他地区重新分配到美国本土。"

Trump's plan is divided into two phases. The first phase begins with phased-in tariffs aimed at generating revenue, boosting domestic production and gaining negotiating leverage - a strategy Milan pushed in the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade talks. Milan noted that gradual implementation minimizes disruption, and currency depreciation in tariff countries offsets inflationary pressures on U.S. consumers.

特朗普的计划分为两个阶段。第一阶段从分阶段征收关税开始，目的是创造收入、提振国内生产并获得谈判筹码——这是米兰在2018-2019年美中贸易谈判中推崇的策略。米兰指出，逐步实施可以最大限度地减少干扰，而关税国家的货币贬值可以抵消美国消费者的通胀压力。

The second phase involved currency adjustments to address trade imbalances, modeled on the Plaza Accord of 1985. At that time, the United States, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom cooperated to devalue the dollar in order to improve the competitiveness of United States exports. Milan proposed the introduction of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”, a shift to a unilateral approach in which tariffs and security agreements would force partner countries to support the devaluation of the dollar.

第二阶段涉及货币调整以解决贸易不平衡，效仿1985年的广场协议。当时，美国、日本、德国、法国和英国合作使美元贬值，以提高美国出口竞争力。米兰提议推出"马阿拉歌协议"，转向单边方式，通过关税和安全协议迫使伙伴国支持美元贬值。

These two phases are designed to deal with rising U.S. debt, less cooperative trading partners (such as China), and inflation risks.

这两个阶段的目的是应对美国不断上升的债务、不太合作的贸易伙伴（如中国）以及通货膨胀风险。

Milan also emphasized reducing inflation through deregulation and lower energy costs, while using tools such as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to discourage foreign holdings of dollar reserves. The framework aims to redirect global demand toward U.S. manufacturing while maintaining market stability and dealing with geopolitical complexities. Trump fine-tuned his slogan at the Davos forum - “America First doesn't mean America Alone” - to convey Milan's vision.

米兰还强调通过放松监管和降低能源成本来减少通胀，同时利用《国际紧急经济权力法》等工具阻止外国持有美元储备。这一框架旨在将全球需求重新引导向美国制造业，同时保持市场稳定并应对地缘政治复杂性。特朗普在达沃斯论坛上微调其口号——"美国优先并不意味着美国独行"——传达了米兰的愿景。

This theory of change re-establishes U.S. economic dominance through the sequencing of tariffs and monetary policy while capitalizing on broader economic and geopolitical dynamics. This may seem somewhat technical, but it is worth analyzing in depth.

这一变革理论通过关税和货币政策的顺序重新确立了美国的经济主导地位，同时利用更广泛的经济和地缘政治动态。这看起来可能有些技术，但值得深入分析。

Tariffs were used as an initial policy lever to generate revenue and boost domestic manufacturing by reducing the competitiveness of foreign imports. Milan argues that if currency markets are allowed to adjust, the risk of inflation will be mitigated through currency depreciation in tariff economies. As trading partners respond, a broader currency readjustment would begin, with the dollar depreciating to improve export competitiveness while discouraging excessive foreign holdings of U.S. assets.

关税作为初始政策杠杆，通过降低外国进口商品的竞争力来创造收入并提振国内制造业。米兰认为，如果货币市场被允许调整，那么通过关税经济体的货币贬值将缓解通胀风险。随着贸易伙伴的回应，更广泛的货币重新调整将开始，美元贬值以提高出口竞争力，同时阻止过多外国持有美国资产。

Milan believes this will recalibrate global demand toward U.S. industries and reinforce the shift in supply chains away from China, while maintaining financial stability through deregulation and lower energy costs. The bet is that the U.S. consumer market and financial system are indispensable enough to extract concessions from allies and rivals, thereby securing long-term trade advantages and cementing U.S. dominance in a reshaped global order.