特朗普上台后，关税和"51州"威胁接连而来，加拿大政府开始频繁提起"能源主权"这个词：卡尼的逻辑是：趁全球还在用石油，加拿大要尽量多卖。但学者指出，"能源主权"这个概念，本来是能源进口国用来保障自身供应的，加拿大作为出口国借用这套说法，含义已经完全变了。挪威也靠卖油起家，却早早用石油收益完成了能源转型；加拿大的公共资金投向化石燃料的比例，目前仍然是G20之首。

神通小助手带你精读 CBC 关于此事的深度分析👇

唐纳德·特朗普第二次入主白宫后不久——伴随着惩罚性关税，以及将加拿大称为"第51个州"的威胁性言论——这个国家的领导人开始援引"能源主权"这一概念。

Soon after Donald Trump took office for a second time, with punishing tariffs and menacing talk of Canada as "the 51st state," this country's leaders began to invoke the idea of "energy sovereignty."

punishing在此作形容词，意为"严苛的、具有惩罚性的"，不是"惩罚"动词本身，强调关税力度之重
menacing意为"威胁性的、带有恐吓意味的"
invoke此处意为"援引、搬出（某一概念或理念）"

这是对一个现实处境的回应：加拿大石油最大买家——美国——正变得越来越充满敌意且难以捉摸，而摆脱这一经济困局的唯一出路，就是寻找新客户。

It was a response to the fact that the biggest consumer of Canadian oil — the U.S. — was becoming increasingly hostile and erratic, an economic quandary that could only be managed by seeking new customers.

erratic意为"反复无常的、难以预测的"
quandary意为"进退两难的困境"，比一般的"problem"更强调左右为难、无从抉择的处境

就在加拿大国庆日前不久，总理马克·卡尼在YouTube上发布了一段长达17分钟的视频，阐述该国将如何优化石油生产；几天后，他站在艾伯塔省省长丹妮尔·史密斯身旁，后者宣布了一项备受期待的提案——修建一条通往西海岸的新输油管道，以满足亚洲市场的需求。

Shortly before Canada Day, Prime Minister Mark Carney posted a 17-minute video to YouTube explaining how this country would optimize oil production, and several days later, he stood next to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith as she announced a much-anticipated proposal to build a new pipeline to the West Coast to quench Asian demand.

optimize意为"优化、使……发挥最大效能"
much-anticipated固定搭配，意为"备受期待的"
quench原意为"解渴"，此处借喻"满足（市场需求）"

但蒙特利尔麦吉尔大学政治学系暨比勒环境学院助理教授艾米·简兹伍德表示，卡尼政府对"能源主权"的诠释，似乎与其他国家的理解大相径庭。

But the Carney government's interpretation of energy sovereignty seems out of step with other countries, says Amy Janzwood, an assistant professor in the department of political science and the Bieler School of the Environment at McGill University in Montreal.

interpretation意为"诠释、解读"，强调对同一概念的不同理解方式
out of step with固定短语，意为"与……步调不一致、脱节"

"我们通常谈到能源主权时，指的是对本国能源来源的掌控……从理论上讲，是为了在某种程度上保障能源的可负担性或可持续性，"简兹伍德说。

"When we talk about energy sovereignty typically, it's about control over your sources of energy … in theory, to provide some kind of guarantee for affordable energy or sustainable energy," said Janzwood.

typically此处意为"通常情况下、按照惯常理解"
in theory固定短语，意为"从理论上讲"
guarantee此处作名词，意为"保障、保证"，指政策层面的制度性承诺
affordable意为"价格合理的、负担得起的"，在能源政策语境中特指"可负担的能源价格"
sustainable意为"可持续的"，在环境语境中特指对生态环境无长期损害的发展方式

"'能源主权'这一说法，过去是由那些依赖化石燃料进口的国家使用的。加拿大作为化石燃料出口国，却试图借用这套话语——但它的含义截然不同。"

"'Energy sovereignty' has been used by countries that are reliant on imports of fossil fuels. Canada as a fossil fuel exporter is trying to mimic this language. But it means something very, very different."

reliant on固定搭配，意为"依赖……的"，此处指在能源上高度依赖进口
mimic意为"模仿、效仿"，带有一定的负面含义，暗示这种借用并不恰当

卡尼的这番言辞引出了一个问题：加拿大究竟是在致力于发展自给自足的能源，还是试图通过最大化出售本国最具盈利潜力的资源来护卫经济？

Carney's rhetoric raises the question: Is Canada aiming to develop self-sustaining energy sources or trying to shield the economy by maximizing the sales of its most profitable resource?

rhetoric意为"（政治）言辞、话语"，常带有"华而不实"或"值得审视"的隐含意味，并非中性词
self-sustaining意为"自给自足的、可自我维持的"，指不依赖外部供应的能源体系
shield此处作动词，意为"保护、屏蔽（经济免受冲击）"

Addressing an 'energy crisis'

应对"能源危机"

在6月30日的视频中，卡尼阐述了他所理解的"全球能源危机"的三大支柱。

In the June 30 video, Carney laid out the three pillars of the "global energy crisis" as he sees it.

laid out固定短语，意为"阐述、详细说明"，常用于正式场合介绍计划或论点
pillars意为"支柱、核心要素"，比喻性用法，指构成某一体系或论述的基础组成部分

第一是能源的可负担性，主要指汽油价格——近几个月来，汽油价格已大幅攀升。第二是能源供应，正受到霍尔木兹海峡僵局等全球性因素的威胁。第三是气候变化——它正以越来越频繁的野火和极端天气的形式显现出来。

The first is the affordability of energy, mainly the price of gasoline, which has shot up in recent months. The second is energy supply, which is being threatened by global factors like the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz. The third is climate change, which is manifesting itself in increasing wildfires and extreme weather.

affordability意为"可负担性"，即普通民众是否能够承受某项费用，是能源政策中的核心概念
shot up固定短语，意为"急剧上涨"，形容价格迅速大幅攀升
impasse意为"僵局、陷入僵持的困境"，常用于外交或地缘政治语境
manifesting itself固定搭配，意为"（以某种形式）显现、表现出来"，此处指气候变化通过具体现象呈现

卡尼的口头禅是"当我们掌控自己的能源，我们就掌控自己的未来"。但曾在保罗·马丁政府总理办公室担任政策副幕僚长的彼得·尼科尔森表示，这篇讲话与其说是关于确保加拿大自身拥有充足能源，不如说更多是关于出售本国油气资源的计划。

Carney's mantra is "when we control our own energy, we control our own future." But the address was more about plans to sell our oil and gas than about ensuring we have enough energy ourselves, says Peter Nicholson, who was a deputy chief of staff for policy in the Prime Minister's Office under Paul Martin.

mantra原为梵文"咒语"，引申为"口头禅、反复强调的核心理念"，此处带有一定的调侃意味，暗示这句话被反复使用
deputy chief of staff意为"副幕僚长"，是政府高级行政职位，负责协调政策工作

"我们谈论的不是加拿大的能源安全，我们谈论的是一项目前极具价值的巨大经济资源，"尼科尔森说。他同时也是加拿大气候研究所的董事会主席。

"We're not talking about Canadian energy security. We're talking about a tremendous economic resource for the time being," said Nicholson, who is also the chair of the board at the Canadian Climate Institute.

tremendous意为"巨大的、极其可观的"
for the time being固定短语，意为"暂时、就目前而言"

卡尼在讲话中也承认了这一点："实际上，没有人知道全球经济将在多长时间内继续依赖传统能源。但只要这种依赖持续存在，这些能源就应尽可能多地来自加拿大，以负责任的方式生产，并明确致力于随时间推移不断降低排放量。"

Carney's address acknowledged this: "The truth is, nobody knows how long the global economy will rely on conventional energy. But while it does, as much of that energy as possible should come from Canada, produced responsibly and with a clear focus on lowering emissions over time."

acknowledged意为"承认、正视（某一事实）"，比 admitted 更正式，语气上不带强烈的自我批评色彩
conventional energy意为"传统能源"，即化石燃料（石油、天然气、煤炭），与可再生能源相对
responsibly意为"负责任地"，此处是政治语境中的关键词，暗示生产过程中会考虑环境影响
lowering emissions意为"降低（温室气体）排放量"

一些人认为，在当前经济动荡时期，卡尼尽量扩大石油产量的策略在商业上是合理的。

Some argue Carney's strategy of pumping as much oil as possible makes business sense at a time of economic upheaval.

pumping此处为俚语/行业用语，意为"大量抽取、全力开采（石油）"
upheaval意为"剧烈动荡、大变局"

但任何关注全球变暖的人，都会对在气候与环境变化部预测2026年将成为有记录以来最热年份之一的情况下继续增加化石燃料产量感到不安。

But anyone concerned about global warming is uncomfortable with the idea of producing more fossil fuels when Environment and Climate Change Canada is forecasting 2026 to be one of the hottest years on record.

forecasting意为"预测、预报"，此处为政府机构基于数据作出的官方预测

卡尼称联邦政府应对气候变化的承诺是"绝对的"，并坚称加拿大必须继续扩建风能、太阳能、核能和水电等零碳能源。

Carney called the federal government's commitment to fighting climate change "absolute," and insisted Canada must continue to build out zero-carbon energy sources like wind, solar, nuclear and hydro.

commitment意为"承诺、承担义务"
insisted意为"坚称、坚持认为"，比 said 语气更强
build out固定短语，意为"扩建、大规模发展（基础设施）"

"走向可负担性的路径是电气化。走向竞争力的路径是电气化。走向可持续性的路径是电气化，"他说。

"The path to affordability is electrification. The path to competitiveness is electrification. The path to sustainability is electrification," he said.

affordability同前，"可负担性"，此处强调电气化将降低能源成本
electrification意为"电气化"，指将能源消费从化石燃料转向电力（尤其是清洁电力）的过程
competitiveness意为"竞争力"
sustainability意为"可持续性"，指在不损害未来资源的前提下满足当代需求

然而，他也承认，在优先发展石油生产的过程中，加拿大正进一步偏离实现气候目标的轨道，温室气体排放量很可能高于此前预测。这番话发表之际，安大略省和魁北克省正笼罩在令人炙热难耐的热穹之下。

But he also admitted that in prioritizing oil production, Canada is moving further away from achieving its climate targets and that emissions would likely be higher than forecasted. These comments came as Ontario and Quebec roasted in a heat dome.

admitted意为"承认"，此处暗含卡尼不得不正视政策与气候目标之间矛盾的意味
prioritizing意为"将……置于优先地位"
targets此处指"（气候）目标"
emissions意为"（温室气体）排放量"
forecasted意为"预测的"
roasted口语化用法，意为"处于极度高温之中"，生动形容两省居民在热穹下酷热难耐的处境

More like Norway?

向挪威看齐？

"转变行动：养老金财富与地球健康"组织总监亚当·斯科特表示，如果能源主权确实意味着满足国内能源需求，"加拿大基本上已经实现了这一点。我们是电力和传统油气的净出口国。"

Adam Scott, director of Shift: Action for Pension Wealth and Planet Health, says that if energy sovereignty does in fact mean having enough energy for domestic requirements, "Canada's pretty much already there. We're a net exporter of electricity and conventional oil and gas."

net exporter意为"净出口国"，指出口量超过进口量的国家，是国际贸易和能源领域的常用术语

卡尼似乎在推销一种"更像挪威"的模式——即将油气所创造的利润用于资助本国向更清洁能源的转型。

Carney seems to be pitching that Canada become more like Norway, where the profits generated by oil and gas are used to help fund the transition to cleaner energy sources for domestic use.

pitching意为"推销（某一理念或方案）"，带有主动游说、积极倡导的含义
generated此处意为"产生、创造（利润）"
transition意为"转型、过渡"，此处特指能源结构从化石燃料向清洁能源的转变

斯科特指出，两者的区别在于：挪威很早就承认，其石油储量终有耗尽之日，因此应将石油收益用于实现经济多元化。

The difference, Scott says, is that Norway long ago acknowledged its petroleum reserves wouldn't last forever and that it should use the revenues to diversify the economy.

acknowledged同前，"承认、正视"，此处指挪威对本国资源局限性的清醒认识
petroleum reserves意为"石油储量"，指地下可开采的石油资源总量
diversify意为"多元化、使……多样化"，此处指减少对单一资源（石油）的经济依赖

而挪威也确实做到了——其电网几乎100%来自低碳能源（主要是水电、太阳能和风能），得益于免税政策和其他电动汽车购车激励措施，新购车辆中几乎100%都是电动车。

And it has done so — its electricity grid is nearly 100 per cent low-carbon sources (largely hydro, solar and wind) and nearly 100 per cent of new vehicle purchases are electric, thanks to tax exemptions and other incentives for EV ownership.

low-carbon意为"低碳的"，指发电过程中温室气体排放量极低的能源形式
exemptions意为"豁免、减免"，此处指税收上的优惠，即免征某些税款
incentives意为"激励措施、优惠政策"，泛指促使消费者购买电动车的各类补贴或政策支持

"从国内层面来看，挪威人不像加拿大人那样暴露在能源冲击或石油市场下行的风险之中，"斯科特说。

"Domestically, Norwegians are not exposed to the risks of energy shock or decline in the oil markets the way that Canadians are," said Scott.

exposed to固定搭配，意为"暴露在……风险/影响之中"，此处强调挪威已通过转型有效规避了能源市场波动的冲击
shock此处指"能源冲击"，即能源供应或价格发生剧烈变化对经济造成的冲击

Economics of oil

石油经济学

国际能源署等机构的预测显示，尽管石油需求总体上仍在增长，但需求趋于平稳乃至下滑的时刻已在不远处。

Forecasts from bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest that while oil demand is rising overall, a time when it flattens and falls is on the horizon.

Forecasts意为"预测、预报"，此处指由权威机构发布的中长期趋势判断
flattens意为"趋于平缓、停止增长"，描述需求曲线从上升转为水平的状态
on the horizon固定短语，意为"即将到来、在可预见的未来"，常用于描述尚未发生但已可预见的趋势

国际能源署表示，这一转折究竟发生在本十年内还是2050年之后，取决于各国政府能否切实推进气候政策。

Whether that happens this decade or after 2050 depends, the IEA says, on whether governments follow through on climate policies.

follow through on固定短语，意为"切实落实、贯彻执行（承诺或政策）"，强调从口头到行动的落地

本月早些时候发布的最新版《世界能源统计年鉴》显示，2025年可再生能源成为全球能源总供应的最大贡献者。

The latest edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy, which came out earlier this month, shows that renewables were the largest contributor to total global energy supply in 2025.

renewables意为"可再生能源"，是 renewable energy sources 的简称，包括太阳能、风能、水电等
contributor意为"贡献者、来源"

报告还指出，中国的做法——包括加快部署清洁能源和储备化石燃料——体现了"对自给自足的持续优先追求"。

It also said that China's approach, which includes an accelerated deployment of clean energy and stockpiling fossil fuels, reflects "a continued priority of self-sufficiency."

accelerated deployment意为"加速部署、提速推广"，指快速大规模应用某项技术或基础设施
stockpiling意为"大量储备、囤积"，常用于战略物资的储存
self-sufficiency意为"自给自足"，指不依赖外部供应即可满足本国需求的能力

非营利机构"石油变革国际"发布的一份新报告显示，2022年至2024年间，加拿大的公共银行每年为化石燃料项目提供182亿加元资金，是可再生能源项目的19倍，在G20国家中居于首位。

A new report by the non-profit Oil Change International found that between 2022 and 2024, public banks in Canada provided $18.2 billion annually for fossil fuels, 19 times more than for renewable projects and the highest in the G20.

"当全球都在竞相迈向更廉价的可再生能源之际，加拿大却仍在继续押注油气，这让加拿大人更容易受到地缘政治和经济波动的冲击，"环境保护组织Environmental Defence油气高级项目经理阿里·海德尔·阿里在回应该报告时写道。

"While the world races towards cheaper renewable energy, Canada continues to double down on oil and gas, leaving Canadians vulnerable to geopolitical and economic volatility," wrote Aly Hyder Ali, oil and gas senior program manager at Environmental Defence, in response to the report.

races towards意为"竞相奔向、加速迈向"，形容全球范围内向可再生能源转型的紧迫态势
double down on固定短语，源自赌博用语，意为"加倍押注、变本加厉地坚持某一策略"，含有冒险和固执的隐含意味
vulnerable to固定搭配，意为"容易受……影响的、在……面前脆弱的"
volatility意为"波动性、不稳定性"，常用于描述金融市场或地缘政治局势的剧烈起伏

斯科特表示，就能源格局而言，全球竞争已变得异常激烈——这在很大程度上源于中国在电气化领域的巨额投入，志在成为全球领军者。

Scott says that in terms of energy, the global situation is very competitive, thanks to China's tremendous investment in becoming a leader in electrification.

与此同时，特朗普领导下的美国"正在代表化石燃料行业出力，试图拖慢这场转型的步伐"。

Meanwhile, the U.S. under Trump "is working on behalf of the fossil fuel industry to try and slow that transition down."

slow…down固定短语，意为"拖慢……的速度、阻滞……的进程"

"一个站在能源转型的赢家一侧，一个站在输家一侧，而（加拿大）决定我们要投入输家那边——而且是蓄意为之，"斯科特说。"这简直令人难以置信。"

"One is on the losing side of the transition and one is on the winning side, and [Canada has] decided we're going to invest in the losing side — intentionally," said Scott. "It's just mind-boggling."