移民是加拿大一直以来的国策，但是为什么人们对自由党现在的移民政策开始感到反感了？ | 看加拿大时事学英语

几十年来，加拿大一直是包容性移民的典范。然而，过去几年，自由党接纳了过多的新移民，且速度过快。为什么没人预见到这种情况？

For decades, Canada has been a model of inclusive immigration. However, over the past few years, the Liberals have admitted too many new immigrants, and too quickly. Why didn't anyone see this coming?

2023年加拿大人口增长110万

去年 6 月，加拿大人口达到 4000 万，联邦政府为此兴奋不已。加拿大首席统计师阿尼尔·阿罗拉表示：“这强烈表明加拿大仍然是一个充满活力、热情好客、潜力无限的国家。”加拿大人口增长速度超出预期——过去 12 个月人口增长 110 万，主要得益于大量国际学生和临时外国工人。然而，尽管大肆宣传，人口激增却并非好消息，因为住房供应无法满足所有新移民的需求。

Last June, Canada's population reached 40 million, and the federal government was excited about it. Anil Arora, Canada's chief statistician, said, "This is a strong indication that Canada remains a vibrant, welcoming country with unlimited potential." Canada's population is growing faster than expected - up 1.1 million in the past 12 months, thanks largely to a large number of international students and temporary foreign workers. However, despite the fanfare, the population surge is not good news, as the housing supply is unable to meet the needs of all the newcomers.

加拿大2023年人口增长的来源国分布情况

移民一直是加拿大成功的核心，推动了经济、文化和社会的繁荣。但近几年，联邦政府接纳了过多移民，却没有相应规划住处。早在 2013 年，加拿大统计局预测到 2023 年加拿大人口将达到 3870 万人，这一预测大大低估了实际情况。其后果显而易见，帐篷营地随处可见，租金飙升，房价高企。一半的加拿大人无法找到家庭医生，外国学生被迫租住在拥挤的房间里，甚至新移民只能住在收容所或街头。一年后，危机已经显现，政府未能预见到这一切。

Immigrants have been central to Canada's success, driving economic, cultural and social prosperity. But in recent years, the federal government has admitted a disproportionate number of immigrants without planning housing accordingly. Back in 2013, Statistics Canada projected that Canada's population would reach 38.7 million by 2023, a projection that greatly underestimated the actual situation. The consequences are clear: tent camps are everywhere, rents are skyrocketing, and housing prices are high. Half of Canadians have no access to a family doctor, foreign students are forced to rent overcrowded rooms, and even new immigrants are forced to live in shelters or on the streets. A year later, the crisis had become apparent, and the government had failed to see it coming.

保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫迅速抓住自由党的失误，声称现任政府破坏了加拿大梦，并承诺保守党将对市政当局施压，消除发展障碍。然而，自由党对此表示拒绝。政府的行动迟缓，去年 7 月，贾斯汀·特鲁多在汉密尔顿宣布为经济适用房项目提供资金，但强调住房并非联邦政府的主要责任，这种推卸责任的态度并未奏效。

Conservative Leader Pierre Poliev was quick to seize on the Liberals' failures, claiming that the current government had destroyed the Canadian dream and promising that the Conservatives would put pressure on municipalities to remove barriers to development. However, the Liberals rejected this. The government has been slow to act, and last July, Justin Trudeau announced funding for affordable housing projects in Hamilton, but emphasized that housing is not the primary responsibility of the federal government, an abdication of responsibility that has not worked.

最近，自由党承认对住房危机负有部分责任，并投入大量精力和资金解决问题。2024 年 4 月，特鲁多在新斯科舍省达特茅斯的住房公告中承认移民政策应承担部分责任。他表示，过去几年，临时移民数量大幅增加，超出了加拿大的吸收能力。这时，自由党开始向市政府和省政府施压，要求他们批准更多住房建设，但为时已晚，解决危机需要数年时间。

More recently, the Liberals have acknowledged partial responsibility for the housing crisis and have invested significant energy and money in solving the problem.2024 In April, Trudeau acknowledged that immigration policy was partly to blame in his housing announcement in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia. He stated that the number of temporary immigrants had increased dramatically over the past few years, exceeding Canada's absorption capacity. That's when the Liberals began pressuring municipal and provincial governments to authorize more housing construction, but it was too late and it will take years to resolve the crisis.

对自由党来说，这无疑是个坏消息，年轻人无法像父母那样买得起房子，对自由党的支持率急剧下降。根据 Abacus Data 首席执行官 David Coletto 的分析，现在只有 25% 的 18 至 35 岁年轻人会投票给自由党，这一群体对特鲁多的三次选举胜利至关重要，但因无力负担住房而感到沮丧，对前景感到悲观，并转向支持波利耶夫。

It was certainly bad news for the Liberals, with young people unable to afford homes like their parents and support for the Liberals plummeting. According to an analysis by Abacus Data CEO David Coletto, only 25 percent of 18- to 35-year-olds will now vote Liberal, a group that was crucial to Trudeau's three election victories, but are frustrated by their inability to afford housing, are pessimistic about their prospects and have shifted in favor of Poliav.

令人担忧的是，对移民的支持率在下降。根据 EKOS Research Associates Inc. 民意调查专家弗兰克·格雷夫斯的调查，两年前，只有 14% 的加拿大人认为加拿大有太多移民，而现在这一比例已升至 57%。几十年来，当美国和欧洲陷入关于移民的情绪化、分裂性辩论时，大多数加拿大人认为移民使我们成为一个更具包容性的社会，给我们带来了独特的经济优势，使加拿大成为难民的欢迎之地，并帮助我们应对人口危机。

Worryingly, support for immigrants is declining. Two years ago, only 14 percent of Canadians thought there were too many immigrants in Canada, a percentage that has now risen to 57 percent, according to pollster Frank Graves of EKOS Research Associates Inc. For decades, while the U.S. and Europe were mired in emotional, divisive debates about immigration, a majority of Canadians believed that immigrants made us a more inclusive society, gave us unique economic advantages, made Canada a welcoming place for refugees and helped us cope with the demographic crisis.

然而，两年后，这一共识已土崩瓦解。为什么没人预见到这种情况？

Two years later, however, that consensus has fallen apart. Why didn't anyone see this coming?

2021 年人口普查显示，23% 的加拿大人出生在外国，这是世界上最高的比例。几乎一半的多伦多人来自其他国家。如果你 1960 年出生在萨德伯里或加拿大其他大多数地方，你的父母也可能来自其他国家。益普索公共事务部 2018 年对 27 个国家的 20,767 人进行的一项调查发现，加拿大的包容性最强。然而，最近对移民的支持突然暴跌，威胁到允许加拿大继续欢迎新移民的共识。

The 2021 Census shows that 23% of Canadians were born in a foreign country, the highest percentage in the world. Almost half of Torontonians are from other countries. If you were born in 1960 in Sudbury or most other places in Canada, your parents were probably from other countries, too. A 2018 survey by Ipsos Public Affairs of 20,767 people in 27 countries found Canada to be the most inclusive. However, a recent sudden plunge in support for immigrants threatens the public opinion that allows Canada to continue to welcome newcomers.

2016 年，特鲁多政府任命时任麦肯锡全球董事总经理的多米尼克·巴顿担任经济增长咨询委员会主席。次年，这个顶尖专家小组发布了一份报告，呼吁加拿大每年逐步增加永久移民数量，五年后达到 45 万的峰值。尽管政府没有正式采用该政策，但它正在悄悄地付诸行动，提出了到 2025 年每年接纳 50 万移民的计划。巴顿还成立了一个商业游说团体——世纪倡议，推动加拿大到 2100 年人口达到 1 亿。

In 2016, the Trudeau government appointed Dominic Barton, then a global managing director at McKinsey, to chair the Economic Growth Advisory Council. The following year, this panel of leading experts released a report calling for Canada to gradually increase the number of permanent immigrants each year, peaking at 450,000 in five years. Although the government has not formally adopted the policy, it is quietly putting it into action with a plan to admit 500,000 immigrants a year by 2025. Barton also founded the Century Initiative, a business lobbying group pushing for Canada's population to reach 100 million by 2100.

当巴顿和大雇主们在董事会和权力走廊里争论不休时，《环球邮报》专栏作家道格·桑德斯也在公众场合为此辩护。2019 年，他出版了《加拿大的最大化：迈向一亿人口的国家》，书中主张更快的人口增长，以使加拿大从更大的规模中获得文化、经济和地缘政治利益。这一概念在 2021 年和 2022 年开始流行。

While Barton and big employers argued in boardrooms and corridors of power, Globe and Mail columnist Doug Saunders also defended this in public, and in 2019, he published Maximizing Canada: towards a 100-million-person nation, a book that argued for faster population growth to allow Canada to reap the cultural, economic, and geopolitical benefits of greater size. This concept became popular in 2021 and 2022.

疫情过后，加拿大急需劳动力，Tim Hortons 连锁店报告了人员短缺危机，超过一半的小企业难以招到员工。劳动力短缺威胁着经济复苏。自由党在财政或税收政策上没有满足企业的需求，因此在移民问题上对企业说“不”。大学和学院也增加了针对国际学生的项目，这些项目收费更高，有些项目的价值也值得怀疑。

In the aftermath of the epidemic, Canada is in dire need of labor, with the Tim Hortons chain reporting a staffing crisis and more than half of small businesses struggling to hire employees. Labor shortages threaten the economic recovery. The Liberals have not met the needs of businesses in terms of fiscal or tax policy, and are therefore saying "no" to businesses on immigration. Universities and colleges have also increased their programs for international students, with higher fees and some of questionable value.

自由党让进入加拿大变得更加容易。2022 年 4 月，他们取消了鱼类加工和水果采摘等季节性行业低薪工人的上限，延长了国际学生的签证期限。同年 12 月，他们向临时外国工人的家庭成员发放工作许可，增加了国际学生的工作时间。他们还开发了新的永久居留权途径，吸引更多学生和工人来到加拿大。与此同时，他们接收了 20 多万乌克兰难民，还有许多未登记的移民通过非官方边境口岸进入加拿大。

The Liberals have made it easier to enter Canada.2022 In April, they lifted the cap on low-wage workers in seasonal industries such as fish processing and fruit picking, and extended visas for international students. In December of the same year, they granted work permits to family members of temporary foreign workers and increased the number of hours international students could work. They also developed a new permanent residency pathway to attract more students and workers to Canada. At the same time, they took in more than 200,000 Ukrainian refugees, and many unregistered immigrants entered Canada through unofficial border crossings.

近年来加拿大新增国际留学生人数

2021 年，超过 60 万名国际学生来到加拿大，2022 年这一数字增加到 80 多万，一些不靠谱的职业学院实际上充当着签证清算所的角色。自由党继续发放签证，导致学生们被高昂的学费和廉价的劳动力所剥削。这些学生希望最终能获得永久居留权，因此不断涌入。

More than 600,000 international students come to Canada in 2021, a number that increases to more than 800,000 in 2022, with some unreliable vocational colleges effectively acting as visa clearinghouses. The Liberals continue to issue visas, resulting in students being exploited by high tuition fees and cheap labor. The influx of these students, hoping to eventually obtain permanent residency, continues.

2022 年第三季度，加拿大人口增长了 362,453 人，这是自 1957 年匈牙利难民在战后婴儿潮中抵达以来最快的增长率。雇主、省级领导、银行经济学家和文化界人士都支持这一增长。然而，联邦官僚机构内部却出现了警告。2022 年的一次简报会上，官员们警告说：“人口增长已经超过了可用住房单元的增长。”但没有人在意。自由党对所有人都说“是”，开辟了新的道路，但没有设置上限。

In the third quarter of 2022, Canada's population grew by 362,453, the fastest rate of growth since Hungarian refugees arrived in 1957 during the post-war baby boom. Employers, provincial leaders, bank economists and cultural figures support this growth. Yet warnings emerged from within the federal bureaucracy. 2022 At a briefing, officials warned, "Population growth has outpaced the growth of available housing units." But no one cared. The Liberals said "yes" to everyone and blazed a new trail without setting a cap.

支持大量移民的人认为，这可以部分解决住房危机，因为行业劳动力短缺。但滑铁卢大学经济学家米卡尔·斯库特鲁德指出，这只是一种假象，因为新移民不仅提供劳动力，还会消费各种资源，从而产生额外需求。他和其他经济学家认为，通过低技能移民来追求经济增长是愚蠢的，因为它会增加经济活动，但会降低人均国内生产总值并抑制商业投资。加拿大帝国商业银行全球市场部副首席经济学家本杰明·塔尔也表示，廉价劳动力会抑制生产力的提高。

Supporters of mass immigration argue it could partially solve the housing crisis because of the industry's labor shortage. But University of Waterloo economist Mikael Skutrud points out that this is an illusion, as new immigrants not only provide labor, but also consume a variety of resources, creating additional demand. He and other economists argue that pursuing economic growth through low-skilled immigration is foolish because it will increase economic activity, but it will lower gross domestic product per capita and dampen business investment. Benjamin Tarr, deputy chief economist for global markets at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, also said that cheap labor inhibits productivity gains.

在经济和政治压力下，我们的领导人做出了短期决定，偏离了加拿大长期以来只允许那些可能在长期内增加国家生产力的移民进入的政策，转而依靠非技术临时工。他们似乎受到了巴顿和桑德斯所倡导观点的影响，即更大的加拿大才是更好的加拿大，但没有做好必要的规划。桑德斯在书中承认，他的想法只有在加拿大准备进行必要投资以防止新移民无家可归、失业和得不到支持时才会奏效。

Under economic and political pressure, our leaders have made short-term decisions to deviate from Canada's long-standing policy of allowing in only those immigrants who are likely to add to the country's productivity in the long run, and instead rely on unskilled temporary labor. They seem to have been influenced by the view advocated by Barton and Saunders that a bigger Canada is a better Canada, but failed to do the necessary planning. Saunders admits in his book that his idea would only work if Canada was prepared to make the necessary investments to prevent newcomers from becoming homeless, unemployed and unsupported.

既然这种情况已经发生，政策制定者和规划者必须承认他们的失败，并听取选民的意见，因为选民们关注的是房价、医疗保健短缺和生活成本问题。短期内，他们需要根据这些标准来决定接纳多少移民。

Now that this has happened, policymakers and planners must recognize their failures and listen to their constituents, who are concerned about housing prices, health care shortages and cost of living issues. In the short term, they need to decide how many immigrants to admit based on these criteria.

在全球舞台上，加拿大的影响力不及预期。无论是军事还是对外援助，我们的支出都低于同类国家，这意味着我们为解决全球问题所做的努力更少。我们唯一能做的就是为远方的人们提供庇护。从二战后欧洲的流离失所者开始，到 20 世纪 50 年代和 60 年代逃离苏联镇压的匈牙利人和其他东欧人，再到 20 世纪 70 年代的越南船民，以及最近来自伊拉克、叙利亚和乌克兰战争的难民，我们有接纳流离失所者、帮助他们建立新家园的传统。

On the global stage, Canada is less influential than expected. We spend less than our peers, both on the military and on foreign aid, which means we do less to solve global problems. The only thing we can do is provide shelter to people in faraway places. Beginning with displaced persons in post-World War II Europe, to Hungarians and other Eastern Europeans fleeing Soviet repression in the 1950s and '60s, to Vietnamese boat people in the 1970s, and more recently to refugees from the wars in Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine, we have a tradition of taking in the displaced and helping them to build new homes.

只有当加拿大人相信这个制度行之有效，相信每个人都有足够的空间时，我们才能做到这一点。如果我们珍视这一传统，那么我们需要确保在将新加拿大人带到这里之前，我们有足够的资源为他们提供保障。

We can only do that if Canadians believe that the system works and that there is enough room for everyone. If we value that tradition, then we need to ensure that we have the resources to provide for new Canadians before we bring them here.