加拿大年通胀率降至 1.7%，“降温”背后：汽油降价，房租和食品却涨疯了？

加拿大 7 月份的通胀数据看似带来了好消息：年通胀率降至 1.7%，让不少人松了一口气。但这真的意味着我们的钱包压力减轻了吗？

别急着下结论！这份看似乐观的报告，其实藏着一个残酷的真相。汽油价格的下跌成功拉低了整体通胀数据，但我们日常生活中最离不开的食品和住房成本，却在悄悄加速上涨。尤其是租金和新鲜水果，价格更是飙升，让普通家庭的开支不减反增。

面对这样的“两面派”数据，加拿大央行会如何抉择？降息的希望是否依旧渺茫？神通小助手将为你解读这份通胀报告新闻，感受数据背后的真实生活压力。

7 月份通货膨胀降温，这主要归功于加油站价格的缓解，但加拿大统计局表示，上个月杂货和住房成本正在加速上涨。

Inflation cooled in July, thanks largely to relief at the gas pumps, but Statistics Canada said grocery and shelter costs were accelerating last month.

Inflation (n.): 通货膨胀。
cooled (v.): 降温。
thanks largely to：主要归功于。
relief (n.): 缓解，减轻。
gas pumps：加油机，代指汽油价格。
grocery and shelter costs：杂货和住房成本。
accelerating (v.): 加速上涨。

该机构周二表示，7 月份的年通胀率降至 1.7%，低于 6 月份的 1.9%，仅略低于经济学家的预测。

The annual rate of inflation fell to 1.7 per cent in July, the agency said Tuesday, down from 1.9 per cent in June and just slightly below what economists were forecasting.

annual rate of inflation：年通胀率。
fell to：降至。
down from：低于。
slightly below：略低于。
forecasting (v.): 预测。

杂货店的成本每年上涨 3.4%，高于 6 月份的 2.8%。加拿大统计局表示，7 月份糖果和咖啡产品的价格大幅上涨，这与生产可可和咖啡豆的国家恶劣的生长条件有关。

Costs rose 3.4 per cent annually at grocery stores, up from 2.8 per cent in June. Confectionery and coffee products saw big price jumps in July, which Statscan said were tied to tough growing conditions in countries that produce cocoa and coffee beans.

up from：高于。
Confectionery (n.): 糖果。
price jumps：价格大幅上涨。
Statscan：加拿大统计局的简称。
tied to：与……有关。
tough growing conditions：恶劣的生长条件。

与此同时，新鲜葡萄的价格上涨了近 30%，推动 7 月份新鲜水果的总体成本从 6 月份的 2.1% 上涨到 3.9%。

Prices for fresh grapes, meanwhile, were up nearly 30 per cent, driving the overall cost for fresh fruit up 3.9 per cent in July from 2.1 per cent in June.

driving (v.): 推动。
overall cost：总体成本。

该机构还表示，汽油价格同比下降 16.1%，这主要归功于消费者碳价的取消。

The agency also says prices for gasoline were down 16.1 per cent year-over-year, thanks largely to the removal of the consumer carbon price.

gasoline (n.): 汽油。
year-over-year (YOY)：同比。
removal (n.): 取消。
consumer carbon price：消费者碳价。

由于石油出口国的产量增加以及以色列和伊朗冲突的停火，汽油价格也环比下降了 0.7%。

Gas prices were also down 0.7 per cent on a monthly basis following an increase in production from oil-exporting countries and a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Iran.

on a monthly basis：按月计算，环比。

following (prep.): 在……之后。
oil-exporting countries：石油出口国。
ceasefire (n.): 停火。

住房通胀率从 6 月份的 2.9% 加速至上个月的 3%，这是自 2024 年 2 月以来该类别的首次增长。

Shelter inflation sped up to three per cent last month from 2.9 per cent in June, marking the first increase in that category since February 2024.

shelter inflation：住房通胀。
sped up：加速，是 speed up 的过去式。
marking (v.): 标志着。

7 月份租金价格增长有所回升，尤其是在爱德华王子岛、纽芬兰和拉布拉多以及不列颠哥伦比亚省。较低的抵押贷款成本仍在缓和住房通胀的整体增长。

Rent price growth picked up in July, particularly in Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador and British Columbia. Lower mortgage costs are still moderating the overall increase in shelter inflation.

Rent price growth：租金价格增长。
picked up：回升，复苏。
mortgage costs：抵押贷款成本。
moderating (v.): 缓和。

与此同时，天然气价格的下降幅度小于 6 月份，这主要归因于安大略省成本的上涨。

Prices for natural gas, meanwhile, fell to a lesser degree than in June, thanks mostly to higher costs in Ontario.

natural gas：天然气。
fell to a lesser degree：下降幅度较小。
thanks mostly to：主要归功于。

加拿大央行将在为 9 月 17 日的下一次利率决定做准备时，仔细分析这些通胀数据。

The Bank of Canada will be parsing the inflation figures as it prepares for its next interest rate decision on Sept. 17.

The Bank of Canada：加拿大央行。
parsing (v.): 分析，仔细研究。
inflation figures：通胀数据。

7 月底，加拿大央行将其政策利率稳定在 2.75%。

The central bank held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent at the end of July.

central bank：中央银行，指加拿大央行。
held...steady：保持……稳定。

蒙特利尔银行（BMO）首席经济学家道格·波特（Doug Porter）周二在给客户的一份报告中预测，价格数据中没有足够的缓解迹象，来说服加拿大央行下个月降息。

BMO chief economist Doug Porter predicted in a note to clients on Tuesday that there weren't enough signs of easing in the price data to convince the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates next month.

BMO：加拿大蒙特利尔银行。
chief economist：首席经济学家。
signs of easing：缓解的迹象。
convince...to...：说服……做……。
cut interest rates：降息。

他说：“7 月份的通胀报告没有太大的意外，但我们目前可能需要一个下行的意外，才能促使加拿大央行结束观望。”

"There were no big surprises in the July inflation report, but we probably need a downside surprise at this point to prompt the BoC off the sidelines," he said.

downside surprise：下行意外，指通胀数据比预期的更低。
prompt...off the sidelines：促使……结束观望。
BoC：加拿大央行（Bank of Canada）的简称。

加拿大统计局表示，央行首选的核心通胀指标（通常会剔除波动性更大的价格变化）在 7 月份稳定在 3% 左右。

Statscan said the central bank's preferred measures of core inflation, which tend to strip out more volatile price changes, held steady around three per cent in July.

preferred measures：首选指标。
core inflation：核心通胀，通常排除食品和能源等波动性大的项目。
strip out：剔除。
volatile (adj.): 波动性的。

但波特指出，三个月的核心通胀读数现在显示 7 月份的年化通胀率为 2.4%。波特说，如果核心通胀的这一最新趋势得以维持，并且经济仍然疲软，“那最终将为加拿大央行的降息奠定基础。”

But Porter points out that the three-month core inflation readings now show an annualized rate of 2.4 per cent for July. And if that more recent trend in core inflation is maintained and the economy remains soft, "that will eventually set the stage for BoC cuts," Porter said.