在达沃斯世界经济论坛上，马克·卡尼的一场演讲，意外在国内掀起了不小的政治回响。短短几天内，自由党的支持率明显上升，卡尼个人好感度同步走高。更耐人寻味的是，这种变化不仅来自演讲本身，也与美国总统特朗普随后作出的强硬回应有关。今天我们一起精读本篇新闻，通过最新民调数据，了解这场外交发声如何转化为真实的民意反馈。👇
在总理马克·卡尼最近访问中国以及瑞士达沃斯之后，加拿大自由党再次迎来选民支持率的上升。目前，近一半的加拿大人表示，如果今天举行联邦大选，他们“很可能”会投票给自由党。
OTTAWA — Canada’s Liberals have received another boost in voter support after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent tour to China and Davos, Switzerland, with nearly half of Canadians now saying they would likely vote Liberal if a federal election were held today.
receive a boost in voter support：选民支持率上升
tour to China and Davos：外交访问 + 国际舞台曝光
would likely vote：并非“确定投票”，但倾向明确
federal election：联邦大选
这项由 Postmedia 与 Léger 联合进行的民调于 1 月 23 日至 26 日期间进行，时间点恰好在卡尼完成对北京的贸易谈判、并在世界经济论坛发表广受关注的演讲之后。该演讲中，他警告各国不要向“霸权国家”卑躬屈膝。
The Postmedia-Leger poll was taken Jan. 23–26, after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade negotiations with Beijing and his widely covered speech to the World Economic Forum warning against truckling to “hegemons.”
widely covered speech：被广泛报道的演讲
World Economic Forum：世界经济论坛（达沃斯论坛）
truckle to：对……卑躬屈膝、讨好
hegemons：霸权国家（明显影射美国）
民调发现，47% 的受访者表示会投票给自由党，相比 12 月初的上一轮 Postmedia-Leger 民调，上升了 4 个百分点。
It found 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, a significant four-point jump compared to an early December Postmedia-Leger poll.
respondents：受访者
significant jump：显著上升
four-point jump：四个百分点（政治新闻高频表达）
调查还显示，民众对卡尼政府的满意度上升了 9 个百分点，达到 58%；而卡尼本人的支持率也在同一时期上涨了 8 个百分点，至 59%。
It also shows that satisfaction in the Carney government jumped nine points to 58 per cent and Carney’s own popularity increased by eight points to 59 per cent in the same period.
satisfaction in the government：对政府整体表现的满意度
popularity：个人支持率 / 民意好感度
民调显示，自由党目前以 47% 对 38% 的支持率领先皮埃尔·波利耶夫领导的保守党，领先优势扩大到 9 个百分点。
The poll shows the Liberals’ lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, at 38 per cent, has increased to nine points ahead of the opposition party’s convention that will see Poilievre’s support tested by a leadership review in Calgary this weekend.
lead over：领先于
opposition party：反对党
leadership review：领导人信任投票/审查
tested：面临考验
尽管如此，民调也显示保守党的支持率较上月上升了 2 个百分点，达到 38%。
The poll shows Conservative support increased two points, to 38 per cent.
increased two points：上升两个百分点
这项针对 1,611 名加拿大人的在线调查，恰逢卡尼在达沃斯发表有关“中等强国必须敢于对抗大国”的演讲后不久，同时也发生了美国总统特朗普对此作出不满回应，称加拿大“不懂得感恩美国的帮助”。
The online poll, which surveyed 1,611 Canadians, was conducted just days after Carney’s widely noticed speech in Davos about middle powers having to stand up to big ones, and an annoyed response by U.S. President Donald Trump who said Canada was not “grateful” for U.S. help.
middle powers：中等强国（如加拿大）
stand up to：对抗、顶住
annoyed response：恼怒的回应
grateful：感恩的
Leger 执行副总裁安德鲁·恩斯表示，这是一场“非常有力量的演讲”，其影响程度并不常见。
“It was a strong speech,” Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns said in an interview. “It’s not often that a speech can have this level of impact… it gets that patriotic mojo going again in Canada.”
a strong speech：强有力的演讲
level of impact：影响力层级
patriotic mojo：民族自豪感、爱国情绪（口语化表达）
恩斯补充说，特朗普对卡尼演讲的反应同样推动了自由党的支持率上升。
But beyond Carney’s words, Trump’s reaction to the speech, in which he claimed that Canada only “lives” because of the U.S., also boosted the Liberals’ fortunes, Enns added.
beyond：不仅仅是
boosted the Liberals’ fortunes：提升了自由党的政治运势
“lives” because of the U.S.：带有贬损意味的说法
恩斯指出，当加拿大人听到外国领导人攻击本国领导人时，往往会出现“集体反弹”。
“People rallied” when hearing that, Enns said. “When someone’s attacking your leader … you’re going to see a positive response by a lot of Canadians, and certainly that older population.”
people rallied：民意凝聚
attacking your leader：攻击你的国家领导人
older population：年长选民
恩斯认为，卡尼支持率的增长几乎完全来自新民主党（NDP）和魁人政团（Bloc Québécois）的支持流失。
Carney’s gains appear to be entirely at the cost of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois, whom Enns say have effectively “disappeared” from public discourse.
at the cost of：以……为代价
disappeared from public discourse：在公共讨论中“消失”
民调显示，魁人政团在魁北克的支持率自 12 月以来暴跌 12 个百分点，从 38% 降至 26%。
The Bloc has much to be concerned about, Enns said, as the poll shows its support has dropped a whopping 12 points in Quebec since December, going from 38 per cent to 26 per cent.
whopping：巨大的、惊人的
drop：下滑
另一方面，魁北克自由党的支持率为46%，比该党2025年选举结果高出3个百分点以上，当时该党赢得了该省78个选区中的44个。
On the flip side, Liberal support in Quebec sits at 46 per cent, over three points higher than the party’s 2025 election result that saw it win 44 of the province’s 78 ridings.
on the flip side：相反地
sits at：稳定在
恩斯指出，魁人政团近期在媒体中难以发声，与魁北克自由党腐败风波以及 CAQ 省长勒戈突然宣布辞职密切相关。
The pollster said it’s been difficult for Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet to carve out space in Quebec media in recent months due to the Quebec Liberal party’s “meltdown” over corruption allegations, followed by CAQ leader and Premier François Legault’s sudden resignation announcement earlier this month.
carve out space：争取话语空间
meltdown：崩盘、内乱
sudden resignation：突然辞职
新民主党的支持率自 12 月以来下滑 3 个百分点，至 5%，这可能与其领导层竞选缺乏公众关注度有关。他说。
The NDP’s support dropped three points to five per cent since early December, likely related to the party’s leadership race that is garnering low interest among the Canadian public, he added.
dropped three points：下降三个百分点
low interest：关注度低
随着保守党领袖博励志（波利耶夫）本周末前往卡尔加里参加党内大会，这位民调专家表示，他可能会关注民调对他有利的议题，尤其是经济负担能力，同时谨慎避免过度批评卡尼。
As Poilievre, the Conservative leader, heads to Calgary for his party’s general meeting this weekend, the pollster said he’s likely to focus on issues that poll strongly for him, particularly affordability, while being cautious of overly criticizing Carney.
affordability：可负担性（住房、物价、生活成本）
cautious of：对……保持谨慎
民调显示，每四名保守党支持者中，就有一人对卡尼政府表示满意。
The recent poll suggests that one in four Conservatives (24 per cent) say they are satisfied with Carney’s government.
one in four：四分之一
“波利耶夫必须承认这是一场艰难的战斗，”恩斯说。“一些保守党人会说马克·卡尼的执政方式就像那些老进步保守党总理一样。”
“Poilievre has to acknowledge that it’s an uphill battle,” Enns said. “Some Tories would say that Mark Carney’s governing like one of those old Progressive Conservative prime ministers would govern.”
an uphill battle：艰难的斗争；困难的任务
Tories：保守党人
Progressive Conservative：加拿大历史上的中右翼传统
governing (style)：执政风格
