加拿大央行突降息！利率回到2.5% ，或开启新一轮宽松周期

加拿大央行将基准利率调降至2.5%，释放出支持经济的信号。专家认为，今年底甚至2026年上半年，可能还会有更多降息。但这对普通家庭意味着什么？房贷利率会不会随之下降？生活压力能否得到缓解？答案可能没有那么乐观。

加拿大央行周三将关键利率下调 25 个基点至 2.5%，这是自 3 月以来的首次降息，央行此举旨在刺激疲软的经济。

The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent on Wednesday, marking its first cut since March, as the central bank moves to stimulate a weakened economy.

basis points：基点，1 个基点 = 0.01%。25 个基点 = 0.25%。
marking its first cut：表明/标志着首次降息。
stimulate a weakened economy：刺激疲软的经济，经济修辞常见搭配。

就业市场已经放缓，扣除汽油价格后的通胀有所缓解，联邦政府取消对美国的报复性关税，也减少了未来通胀的一些“上行风险”，行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆在渥太华的新闻发布会上开场发言时指出。

The job market has softened, inflation excluding gas has eased, and the federal government's removal of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. has reduced some "upside risk" to future inflation, governor Tiff Macklem noted in his opening remarks during a news conference in Ottawa.

job market has softened：就业市场放缓，soften 在这里指“疲软”。
inflation excluding gas：剔除能源后的核心通胀。
retaliatory tariffs：报复性关税。
upside risk：上行风险，即通胀继续升高的可能性。

“仍然存在相当大的不确定性。但在经济疲软、通胀上行风险减小的情况下，管理委员会认为下调政策利率是合适的，以便更好地平衡未来的风险，”他说。

"Considerable uncertainty remains. But with a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward," he said.

considerable uncertainty remains：仍存在很大的不确定性。
policy rate：政策利率，即央行基准利率。
better balance the risks：更好地平衡风险。

自 7 月以来，经济发生了一系列变化，影响了央行一致决定降息的判断，麦克勒姆解释道。但美国的贸易战仍在国家整体经济前景中发挥着重要作用。

The economy has seen a number of developments since July that influenced the bank's unanimous decision to cut rates, Macklem explained. But the U.S. trade war is still playing a significant role in the country's overall economic outlook.

unanimous decision：一致决定。
economic outlook：经济前景。

“加拿大经济正受到美国关税和美国贸易政策不可预测性的双重影响，”麦克勒姆说。

"The Canadian economy is being affected by both U.S. tariffs and the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy," Macklem said.

unpredictability of … policy：政策的不可预测性。
being affected by：被…影响。

道明银行、蒙特利尔银行、加拿大帝国商业银行和加拿大皇家银行周三下午均将其最优惠利率下调 25 个基点至 4.70%。

TD Bank, BMO, CIBC and RBC decreased their prime rates by 25 basis points to 4.70 per cent on Wednesday afternoon.

prime rate：最优惠利率，商业银行向最优客户提供的贷款利率。

加拿大经济的快照

第二季度 GDP 下滑，正如央行预期的那样，对美出口在企业先前因应美国关税提前囤货后出现下跌。

GDP declined in the second quarter, as the central bank expected, and exports to the U.S. fell after businesses initially front-loaded on inventory in response to U.S. tariffs.

front-loaded on inventory：提前囤货。
declined：下滑，减少。

一些企业缩减了投资。安大略省特库姆塞制造公司 Laval Tool 的老板乔纳森·阿佐帕迪表示，单次降息对小公司有帮助——但作用有限。

Some businesses have pulled back on their investments. Jonathon Azzopardi, the owner of manufacturing company Laval Tool in Tecumseh, Ont., says a single rate cut helps small firms — but not drastically.

pulled back on investments：减少投资。
not drastically：作用不大/有限。

“这不会让人兴奋得跳起来马上投资。别自欺欺人了——那是不可能发生的，对吧？”他在接受 CBC 新闻采访时说。

"It's not going to make anybody jump out of their seat and start doing investments. Like, let's not fool ourselves — that's likely not going to happen, right?" he told CBC News in an interview.

let’s not fool ourselves：别自欺欺人。
jump out of their seat：形象说法，表示“立刻兴奋行动”。

麦克勒姆承认，关税继续对加拿大的关键产业（如汽车、钢铁和铝）产生“深远影响”——铜和木材的额外关税、中国对油菜籽、猪肉和海鲜的关税也同样如此。

Macklem acknowledged that tariffs continue to have a "profound effect" on key Canadian industries such as auto, steel and aluminum — as do additional tariffs on copper and lumber, and Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood.

acknowledge：承认，认可。
profound effect：深远影响。
as do…：同样也对…产生作用。

与此同时，加拿大经济在过去两个月里已经失去了超过 100,000 个工作岗位，失业率攀升至 7.1%。

Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has lost more than 100,000 jobs in the last two months and the unemployment rate has climbed to 7.1 per cent.

lost jobs：失业/丧失岗位。
climbed to：攀升至。

除了受关税影响严重的行业出现大规模失业外，其他行业的雇主也因经济不确定性而缩减招聘，麦克勒姆解释道。

In addition to significant job losses in tariff-exposed sectors, employers in other industries are pulling back on hiring as uncertainty plagues the Canadian economy, Macklem explained.

tariff-exposed sectors：受关税影响的行业。
pull back on hiring：减少招聘。
plague：困扰，折磨。

第二季度的消费者支出比预期更强劲，但随着就业市场疲软影响到加拿大家庭，这种情况可能会改变，他说。

Consumer spending was stronger than expected in the second quarter, but that could change as job market weakness weighs on Canadian households, he said.

consumer spending：消费者支出。
weighs on：压在…身上，影响。

不过，如果美国对加拿大保持现有关税政策，“我们并不预计会出现衰退，”麦克勒姆告诉记者。他警告说，如果关税制度升级，情况将发生变化。

However, "we're not expecting a recession" if the U.S. maintains its current tariff policy toward Canada, Macklem told reporters. He cautioned that would change if the tariff regime escalated.

recession：经济衰退。
tariff regime：关税制度。
escalated：升级，加剧。

“展望未来，自 7 月以来我们看到美国关税趋于稳定，从这个意义上说，至少部分近期的关税不确定性有所下降，”他说。因此，央行不像往常一样采取太多前瞻性措施。

"Looking forward, we have seen more stability in U.S. tariffs since July, and in that sense, at least some of the near-term tariff uncertainty has declined," he said. As such, the bank isn't being as forward-looking as it usually is.

stability in tariffs：关税的稳定性。
near-term uncertainty：短期不确定性。
forward-looking：前瞻性的。

大多数经济学家预计央行会在周三降息，尤其是在 8 月份通胀报告表现平淡之后。

Most economists expected the central bank to cut rates on Wednesday, especially on the heels of a muted August inflation report.

on the heels of：紧随其后。
muted report：表现平淡的报告。

“这并不令人惊讶。这完全在预料之中，我认为最终是值得欢迎的，”多伦多加拿大皇家银行全球资产管理公司的首席经济学家埃里克·拉斯塞尔斯说。

"It's not a surprise. This was entirely anticipated and I think ultimately welcome," said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management in Toronto.

anticipated：预期的。
ultimately welcome：最终值得欢迎。

由于美国贸易战的爆发，经济“表现严重不佳”，拉斯塞尔斯指出，央行提供一些支持是“合适的”。

The economy has been "profoundly underperforming" with the onset of the U.S. trade war and Lascelles noted that it's "appropriate" to have some support from the central bank.

underperforming：表现不佳。
onset of：…的开始。

增长疲软、就业低迷和通胀降温风险结合在一起，“推动加拿大央行走向降息方向”。

Lagging growth, combined with weak employment and cooling inflation risks, are "prodding the Bank of Canada in a rate-cutting direction."

lagging growth：滞后的增长。
prod … in a direction：推动…走向某个方向。

至于央行是否会在年底前再次降息，“我认为合理的预期是会有一些额外的降息，”拉斯塞尔斯说。

As for whether the central bank will cut again before the end of the year, "I think it's reasonable to expect some extra rate-cutting," said Lascelles.

reasonable to expect：合理预期。
extra rate-cutting：额外的降息。

他预计在 2026 年上半年可能还会有进一步的降息。

He expects there might be some further easing in interest rates over the first half of 2026 as well.

further easing：进一步宽松（降息/货币政策放松）。

麦克勒姆说，通胀压力“更受控制”

Inflation pressures 'more contained,' says Macklem

contained：受控制的，遏制的。

尽管总体通胀率为 1.9%，但加拿大央行更关注核心通胀指标，即剔除汽油等波动性行业后的整体水平。

While the overall inflation rate stands at 1.9 per cent, the Bank of Canada pays close attention to core measures of inflation, which exclude volatile sectors like gas from the overall rate.

overall inflation rate：总体通胀率。
core measures：核心指标。
volatile sectors：波动性行业。

央行的理想通胀率是 2%，目标区间在 1% 至 3% 之间。核心指标曾接近区间的高端，但最近几个月增长速度有所放缓，麦克勒姆指出。

The bank's inflation sweet spot is two per cent, with a target range between one and three per cent. Core measures have hovered closer to the higher end of that range, but the pace of their growth has eased in recent months, Macklem noted.

sweet spot：理想点。
hovered closer to：徘徊在接近…的位置。

“我们看到潜在通胀的上行压力有所缓解，这让我们更放心，”麦克勒姆在与记者的问答中说。

"There is some more comfort that some of those upward pressures we saw on underlying inflation are coming off," Macklem said during a Q&A with reporters.

coming off：消退，缓解。
underlying inflation：潜在通胀。

他表示通胀压力似乎“更加可控”，但经济增长疲弱促使周三降息。“我们不希望加拿大人担心生活成本的大幅上涨。”

Inflationary pressures seem "a little more contained," he said, but weak economic growth tipped the balance in cutting the interest rate on Wednesday. "We don't want Canadians to have to worry about big increases in the cost of living."