加拿大人口几乎零增长？！创二战后新低，老龄化阴影笼罩.....

加拿大的人口在 2025 年第二季度几乎没有增长，根据加拿大统计局的新数据，这与年初的情况相似。

Canada's population growth was nearly flat in the second quarter of 2025, according to new data from Statistics Canada, following similar figures at the start of the year.

• population growth：人口增长。

• nearly flat：几乎停滞，几乎没有变化。

• following similar figures：与之前类似的数据一致。

今年 4 月 1 日至 7 月 1 日之间，加拿大人口仅增长了 0.1%，与 1 月至 3 月的增速相同——总共增加了 47,098 人。

The country's population ticked up 0.1 per cent between April 1 and July 1 of this year — the same rate as January to March — with the country adding 47,098 people to its population.

• ticked up：略微上升。 

加拿大统计局表示，这是自 1946 年有可比记录以来，除去疫情年份的最低第二季度增长率。

According to Statistics Canada, that's the lowest second quarter growth rate (outside of pandemic years) since 1946, when comparable record-keeping began.

• lowest growth rate since 1946：自 1946 年以来最低增速。

• outside of pandemic years：不包括疫情年份。

停滞主要是由于加拿大非永久居民数量下降。在这一季度，有 58,719 名非永久居民离开加拿大——这是自 1971 年以来最大的一次季度下降（不计疫情时期）。

The flatlining was mostly due to a drop in the number of non-permanent residents in the country. In the quarter, 58,719 non-permanent residents left Canada — the largest quarterly decline since 1971 outside of the pandemic, the agency said.

• flatlining：停滞不前。

• non-permanent residents：非永久居民（如工签、学签、访客签）。

• quarterly decline：季度下降。

这一情况发生在联邦政府于 2024 年调整移民政策之后，当时政府限制了非永久居民入境人数。

This comes after the federal government made changes to their immigration policy in 2024 to limit the number of non-permanent residents allowed into Canada. 

这些措施包括减少临时外籍工人数量、限制雇主雇用低薪工人的时机，以及大幅削减学习许可的发放数量。

This included reducing the number of temporary foreign workers allowed into the country and restricting when employers could hire these low-wage workers, as well as slashing the number of study permits given out.

• slashing the number of study permits：大幅削减学习许可。

• low-wage workers：低薪工人。

在这之前，加拿大在疫情后曾放宽过非永久居民的限制，以应对劳动力短缺。结果，从 2022 年到 2025 年初，加拿大人口每年膨胀约 100 万人。

Before that, the federal government had loosened restrictions on non-permanent residents when Canada was facing a labour shortage following the pandemic. As a result, Canada's population ballooned by about 1 million people per year from 2022 to the beginning of 2025.

• loosened restrictions：放宽限制。

• ballooned：激增，迅速膨胀。

加拿大统计局表示，持工签或学签的人数在该季度明显下降，导致非永久居民减少。不过，大量寻求庇护者的涌入在一定程度上缓和了整体下降趋势。

Statistics Canada said the number of people in Canada on work permits or study permits specifically dropped in the quarter, leading to the decrease in non-permanent residents. An influx of asylum claimants moderated the decline in the total number of temporary residents, the agency added.

• influx of asylum claimants：寻求庇护者的涌入。

• moderated the decline：缓解下降。

经济学家阿米娜·亚尔尼兹扬表示，人口增长放缓短期内对经济可能没有太大影响，但长期来看则可能带来严重问题。

Armine Yalnizyan, an economist and Atkinson fellow on the future of workers, says the slowing population numbers might not have an effect on the economy immediately but could in the long run.

她指出，尽管目前加拿大失业率较高，但某些行业高度依赖外国工人——包括建筑、长期护理、儿童护理和食品生产。虽然这些行业的雇主目前仍能通过豁免雇用低薪外籍工人，但“迟早”会感受到限制带来的压力。

While Canada's unemployment is high right now, Yalnizyan says there are certain sectors that rely heavily on foreign workers — including construction, long-term care, child care and food production. Exemptions have allowed employers in many of those sectors to keep hiring low-wage foreign workers at higher rates, but Yalnizyan says those sectors will likely feel the pinch "sooner or later."

• feel the pinch：感受到压力。

• long-term care：长期护理。

亚尔尼兹扬认为，鉴于失业率较高，政府不太可能改变移民目标。加拿大统计局数据显示，8 月失业率达到 7.1%，是 2016 年以来（疫情除外）的最高水平。

Still, she's doubtful the government will change its immigration targets, given the number of Canadians who are without jobs. The unemployment rate hit 7.1 per cent in August, according to Statistics Canada — the highest rate since 2016 outside of the pandemic.

• unemployment rate：失业率。

• doubtful：怀疑，不太相信。

她补充说，政府的国家建设项目可能不会改变这一点，因为这些项目的障碍往往与资金有关，而不是劳动力是否充足。

The government's commitment to nation-building projects won't likely sway that, she adds, as the obstacles to those projects tend to be related to funding rather than whether or not there are enough people to build them.

• nation-building projects：国家建设项目。

• sway：左右，影响。

随着非永久居民的减少，加拿大人口的平均年龄也上升了。

As the influx of non-permanent residents slumps, the age of Canada's population also rose.

• slumps：骤降，下滑。

加拿大的平均年龄在 4 月至 7 月间从 41.6 岁上升到 41.8 岁。截至 7 月 1 日，近五分之一的加拿大人年龄在 65 岁以上，在纽芬兰和拉布拉多省这一比例甚至达到四分之一。

Canada's average age increased from 41.6 years to 41.8 years between April and July. Nearly one in five Canadians was also over the age of 65 as of July 1, with that figure being even higher in Newfoundland and Labrador, at 1 in 4.

• one in five：每五人中有一人。

• over the age of 65：65 岁以上。

亚尔尼兹扬指出，这将带来问题。她说，加拿大正走向数十年来工作年龄人口最少的局面——意味着劳动力减少，而需要照护的老年人增加。

That could also spell trouble, according to Yalnizyan. She says Canada is on track to have the smallest working-age cohort in decades — meaning there will be less people available to work and more older adults that require care.

• working-age cohort：工作年龄群体。

• spell trouble：意味着麻烦。

她强调，除非我们让更多的工作年龄人口进入该国，否则老龄化趋势将持续下去。

Yalnizyan says the aging trend is one that will continue unless we bring more working age people into the country. 

她指出，近年来，移民一直是加拿大劳动力增长的一个重要因素——2016 年至 2021 年间，新移民贡献了 79.9% 的劳动力增长。

She points out that in recent years, immigration has been a huge factor in growing Canada's labour force — between 2016 and 2021, newcomers contributed to 79.9 per cent of the growth in the labour force.

• newcomers：新移民。

• labour force growth：劳动力增长。

但C.D. Howe研究所的劳动经济学家帕丽萨·马布比则认为，移民无法解决加拿大所有的人口老龄化问题。

But Parisa Mahboubi, a labour economist at the C.D. Howe Institute, says immigration can't solve all of Canada's aging issues.

马布比补充说，还有其他方法可以提升劳动力——比如帮助已经在加拿大的人增加工作时长、提高生产力。加拿大的生产率长期落后，加拿大央行行长甚至称其为该国的“阿喀琉斯之踵”。

Mahboubi adds that there are other ways to help our labour force as well — including by helping those who are already in Canada to work more hours and by increasing productivity. Lags in productivity has proved problematic for Canada, with the Bank of Canada's governor calling it the country's "Achilles heel."

• productivity lag：生产率滞后。

• Achilles heel：阿喀琉斯之踵，比喻致命弱点。

马布比表示，对技术和人工智能的投资有助于未来提升生产率，缓解劳动力问题。

Investments in technology and AI could also boost productivity in years to come and help with labour force issues, Mahboubi says.

• boost productivity：提升生产力。

“移民是有帮助的，但移民……不能阻止加拿大的老龄化，因为移民也会老去。”马布比说。

"Immigration helps, but immigration … is not able to prevent Canada from aging because immigrants also age," Mahboubi said.

她认为，与其单纯关注移民数量，不如吸引“最优秀、最聪明”的人，对经济的积极影响更大。

She says rather than focusing on the sheer number of immigrants we let in, attracting the "best and brightest" would have the biggest positive impact on the economy.

• the best and brightest：最优秀、最聪明的人才。